DIY bird mobile…now this makes me want to have a baby

you all may have seen this absolutely adorable bird mobile before, but i just saw it.  i’m definitely going to have one of these in our nursery when we decide to have a baby. get the how to instructions here at the d*s blog. so, so cool.

Gadsden Hobby Lobby Paint Class 8-27-09

As you can see we had a great time painting this canvas garden gate!!!!!

Pictures from Course 2 Wilton Cake Decorating

We did this on 8/25/09 end of course 2. Flowers still need lots of work. We will be starting Course 3 Thursday Fondant can't wait to paint on the fondant hope I can do it......

Of Voles and Men

David Meskill

Can the study of voles—meadow mice or field mice (genus Microtus)—prepare one to produce valuable insights into human history? Peter Turchin thinks so. With Historical Dynamics: Why States Rise and Fall, the theoretical ecologist joins Jared Diamond, Peter Richerson, and a growing number of other biological scientists who have recently turned their sights on human history. Turchin believes his work on the dynamics of vole and other animal populations has given him the basic tools not only to illuminate a particular topic in history—the rise and fall of agrarian empires—but even more ambitiously, to advance history as a discipline.

In Historical Dynamics, Turchin develops and compares several theories in order to explain the dynamics of empires during the long agrarian phase of recorded human history. Early on he introduces a basic and very helpful distinction from population ecology, that between three “orders” of dynamic change or growth: 1) linear or exponential; 2) asymptotic or logistic; and 3) oscillatory. The first kind, limitless growth, almost never occurs, not only because growth requires resources and almost all resources are limited, but also because growth triggers debilitating feed-back mechanisms. For example, in the classic predator-prey situation, the growth of prey populations inevitably allows predators to run wild. This leaves the asymptotic/logistic dynamic, in which growth (whether of a linear or exponential kind) slows until it stabilized around an equilibrium, and the oscillatory dynamic, in which there is either a boom and bust or repeated ups and downs. In both the asymptotic/logistic and the oscillatory patterns, the nature of the feed-back mechanisms plays the decisive role. The key difference between the two—something not at first self-evident, but then readily grasped—is that the former can occur only if the feed-back is immediate and singular, whereas oscillations occur either if there is a lagged feed-back or if more than one feed-back is in operation. To explain the rise and fall of states, Turchin thus argues, we need to look for lagged or multiple feed-back mechanisms.

Turchin considers four processes that may contribute to the rise or fall of states. These are 1) the logistics of expansion, 2) ethnic assimilation, 3) ethnic frontiers as sources of internal cohesion, and 4) the interactions between population growth and political stability. For the first process, Turchin draws on and elaborates Randall Collins’ work on the geopolitics of expansion (which is similar to Paul Kennedy’s theory of imperial overreach). This theory focuses on the gains of expansion, such as increased resources and people to exploit, as well as the drawbacks, such as longer borders to defend and longer routes between core and periphery. Because these negative feedbacks should act fairly quickly, Turchin argues, Collins’ theory accounts at most for asymptotic dynamics: it may explain why states reach a point where they stop expanding, but it can’t explain why they eventually collapse. The second process—ethnic assimilation or lack thereof—also isn’t the main focus of Turchin’s book. It’s not rejected as a possible explanation for the fall of states, as geopolitics was, but rather it is not developed fully enough to address the central question adequately. Even so, Turchin’s brief treatment of processes of assimilation is fascinating and demonstrates the power of mathematical models to reveal surprising patterns. Relying, for example, on Rodney Stark’s argument and data about the social networks that were crucial in the spread of Christianity in the Roman Empire, Turchin shows that the “threshold” or “take-off” arguments that have often been proposed to explain Christianity’s “sudden” popularity in the third century are simply superfluous. The explanations they offer lead to a dead-end. The same exponential rate of growth (which Stark explains in terms of social networks) can account for both the increase of Christians from, say, .0017% of the Roman Empire’s population in 40 CE to still less than 1% in 200 CE, as well as the apparent “take-off” from 1.9% in 250 CE to 10.5% in 300 CE and 56.5% in 350 CE. An understanding of exponential growth takes the mystery out of something like Christianity’s only apparently explosive development in the third century—and thereby redirects our search for causes.

Turchin’s book is most valuable for two other explanations of the rise and fall of empires. His most original contribution relates to the role of what he calls “meta-ethnic frontiers.” Symptomatic of the breadth and productive eclecticism of his thought, Turchin begins here with an idea borrowed from the medieval Muslim thinker Ibn Khaldun, who is sometimes called the world’s first sociologist. Ibn Khaldun, in trying to explain the cyclical rise and fall of Arab states in North Africa, pointed to the key role of asabiya, the internal cohesion and moral strength of a group. The originally high asabiya of mountain tribesmen allowed them to conquer effete low-lying cities, but after some time the allures of urban life would reduce their own collective fortitude—opening the way for the cycle to begin all over again. To explain where asabiya comes from in the first place, Turchin points to Frederick Barth’s seminal study of tribal identity in Afghanistan: group identity is always highest in conflict with another group. When things like religion, language, and way of life (agricultural vs. pastoral) are radically different, the people on each side of the border—which Turchin refers to as a meta-ethnic boundary—will develop a fierce sense of loyalty to their own people.

After developing his model of the waxing of asabiya along meta-ethnic frontiers and its waning in the imperial interior, Turchin tests the theory in considerable detail against the history of state formation and decline in Europe from the Roman Empire to 1900 C.E. (sweeps of this kind are frequent in the book). He does so by dividing Europe into more than 50 regions and coding each of them in century-long intervals for the elements forming a meta-ethnic frontier (religious conflict, etc.), together yielding more than 2000 data points. He then plots these results against the later emergence of states above a certain threshold size. Meta-ethnic frontiers, he finds, explain most—though not all—subsequent instances of later formation of large states. The unexplained exceptions remain a problem, Turchin readily admits, and he explicitly solicits improvements to his theory. For now, however, he argues, what is crucial is that the meta-ethnic frontiers theory has much greater relative explanatory power than its main rival, Collins’ geopolitical approach. (A possible criticism at this point is that Turchin’s test of his theory may have involved some ad hoc adjustments. Already knowing the outcome to be explained [in this case, where states did, in fact, form] Turchin may have tweaked his parameters [for example, the choice of the boundaries of the sub-regions] in such a way as to confirm his theory. Such adjustments, often unintentional, are hard to avoid. Thus, other tests, in which the parameters are chosen without knowledge of the outcomes, would be desirable. Turchin, ever aware of methodological matters and modest in his claims, would almost certainly agree and, indeed, himself repeatedly encourages improvements on and challenges to his theories.)

If asabiya-generation on the frontier accounts mainly for the expansion of states up to a certain equilibrium, excessive population growth largely accounts for states’ subsequent collapse. Here Turchin borrows from and modifies Jack Goldstone’s demographic-structural account of the collapse of early modern states. Goldstone’s theory revolves around the indirect effects of Malthusian growth. I.e. a growing population doesn’t lead directly to starvation, but to a strain on state capacity, inflation, and both more intense elite exploitation of non-elites and greater intra-elite competition.

In the end, Turchin admits that he hasn’t been able to synthesize the various strands into a single unified account. This may be disappointing, but it also fits well with his refreshing modesty and, more than that, with his broader intellectual agenda. Turchin wants to bring to history the mind-set of the scientist. Theories are not (or are only rarely) complete or simply “right”; rather, we usually only have the choice between better and worse theories, those that explain more or less. Hence, in order to make progress, Turchin argues, it is crucial that we frame our arguments in as explicit a way as possible so that we can compare their explanatory power. Constructing mathematical models, he believes, is invaluable for these purposes of testing and comparison. Furthermore, history needs math because its dynamics often involve non-linear, lagged feedbacks—as demonstrated in the rise and fall of agrarian states. The underlying mechanisms of these oscillations are usually too complex to be captured by merely verbal models, and can only be grasped with the aid of explicit mathematical ones.

While becoming a leading ecologist, Turchin has somehow also found the time and energy to acquire vast erudition not only in historical, but also sociological, anthropological, and economic, literatures. This natural scientist doesn't simply or crudely apply lessons drawn from his studies of voles and other animals to human populations; rather, he attempts to combine some of those insights into dynamics with an awareness of factors that make human history even more complex. While he advocates a bold methodological position, the modesty with which he makes his case should absolve him of the charge of “intellectual imperialism” often thrown at earlier generations of social and natural scientists, who encroached on the turf of historians. Turchin goes to considerable lengths to explain his models in ways that are generally comprehensible (though one may have to dust off little-used knowledge from high school or college math). Historians who focus on the many fields from which Turchin draws his case studies (France, Russia, China, Islam, Christianity, Egypt, England) may, or may not, find his explanations convincing. Regardless, he will surely welcome the scrutiny and debate.

Love Life.

Simplify your life
Live one day at a time

Less is more

Slow down and take it all in...

Quality over quantity

Forget about the mess sometimes & be happy there's someone there to make it.

Don't worry

Paring down makes you feel free...

Take pleasure in the day to day

Appreciate the little things in life

Find beauty in every day things...

Don't click away the time

You never regret taking the time to do something nice for someone

They grow up before you know it

Keep your goals in mind but don't forget to appreciate what you already have...

Each day is such a gift to us and we should treasure its beauties: nature, our homes, our friends, our families...

Take nothing for granted. You will be happier, I promise.

A little girl drowned in the ocean this week while we were at the beach. I can't imagine how horrible it must be for her family right now & I'm heartbroken for them. Please say a little prayer & remember what's really important in your life. Don't take even one day for granted.

xoxo,

lauren

*images- 1. Real Simple, 2. Baby Christian 3.Atlanta bartlett 4. Atlanta bartlett 5.Real Simple, 6. real Simple 7.Mine-FL Rocking Chair 8.Atlanta Bartlett 9.Mine- wild chickory 10. mine- Froggy 11.real Simple 12. Mine- Ashby 13.Atlanta Bartlett 14-16. Mine - family

it’s time for some auburn football

well it’s that time of year again, fall and football at the holcombe household.  the first weekend of college football starts this weekend.  i’m a huge auburn football fan as is the rest of my family.  well all except for my husband billy. he is a georgia fan, but i still love him.  although i’ll be in washington dc this weekend on my annual girl’s trip(YAY!), i’ll still be getting regular updates on the scores from my husband who will be in charleston for his annual guys football kick-off trip. 

this post is dedicated to auburn and to the wonderful color combination of orange and blue.  i don’t suggest designing a home or room around a sports team but auburn is fortunate enough to have great school colors…orange and blue.  take a look at all the photos i found of homes designed with this color scheme.

this bedroom was designed by anna spiro author of the blog absolutely beautiful things.

image – martha stewart

image – martha stewart

nursery designed by jeannie fraise of lotus blue

image – in style home – fall/winter 2007 issue

design by james michael howard owner of mrs. howard and max and company along with his wife phoebe

WAR EAGLE!

LiveJournal Tags: auburn football,orange and blue,college football,georgia fan,washington dc,charleston,sports team,anna spiro,absolutely beautiful things beautiful things,blog wallcovering,martha stewart,jeannie fraise,lotus blue,nursery,bedroom,in style home,james michael howard,mrs. howard,max and company

OMG!!! look what target has now…WALLPAPER

i just saw this post from the babs blog and it’s all about target carrying graham & brown wallpaper.  they are also carrying other brands.  i don’t know if this is new or just new to me but i’m really excited about it.

if i had known about this yesterday it would have definitely made my “…loving” list.

LiveJournal Tags: target,graham & brown wallpaper,wallpaper,the babs blog,blog,wallcovering

what i’m loving this week…

i thought i’d start doing a blog every friday about the things i’m loving during the week.  maybe it will be blogs i’ve read about or furniture pieces i saw online.  i’ll figure it out as i go.  so here’s the first “what i’m loving this week…” list.

1. cool asian style hardware from lee valley & veritas.  spotted it at the elements of style blog

and erin gates, author of elements of style spotted it here in sabrina linn’s loft featured in canadian house & home

2. this new vanity stool from wisteria.

3.  new lucite fruit from urban barn

  

4.  sheesham birds from west elm

5.  timber table from gus*

6. filament chandelier from restoration hardware

7. fleur patchwork quilt from urban outfitters

8.  mirabel wallcovering from romo fabrics

9.  the athens upholstered chair in smoke from target. didn’t realize target made furniture that looked this good.

10. lorraine headboard from antrhopologie…because it’s on sale.

LiveJournal Tags: asian style hardware,lee valley & veritas,elements of style,blog,erin gates,sabrina linn,canadian house & home,vanity stool,wisteria,urban barn,west elm,timber table,gus*,restoration hardware,urban outfitters,mirabel,wallcovering,romo fabrics,target,lorraine headboard,anthropologie,sale

Pear Tree Cottage Design Seminars!!

For any DC area readers, I wanted to let you know about Pear Tree Cottage's Design Seminar Series. (For non-DC area readers, just enjoy the pretty eye candy ;) The super-sweet & creative owner, Frances Brayshaw has gotten together a group of local designers to do a month-long series of design seminars on every Sunday in September. I'm so excited to be a part of the series & am the first one up on Sunday, September 6th at 4:00 pm at the shop in Vienna. Spots are limited, so if you'd like to attend, email Frances at RSVP@ThePearTreeCottage.com

Pear Tree Cottage
130 Maple Avenue
Vienna, VA 22180
RSVP@ThePearTreeCottage.com



I'm doing a workshop on arranging your accessories and will be starting with empty surfaces & demonstrating step-by-step how to create artful tablespaces, bookshelves & mantle arrangements.

Here's the schedule of Seminars:

Sunday, September 6 @ 4:00- Lauren Liess: Arranging Your Accessories

Sunday, September 13 @ 4:00- Toni Principe Korby: Defining the Look of Luxury

Sunday, September 20 @ 4:00- Kimberly Stein: From Photo to Finish

Sunday, September 27 @4:00- Rebecca Ilgenfritz: First Impressions: The Foyer

Everything in the shop is displayed so beautifully & they carry antiques & one-of-a-kind items as well as new items. The merchandise is always changing and it's one of those places you'll want to go to often to see what's new. (Not to mention you'll want everything in there!!!) Check out The Washington Spaces Blog for much more detailed description. (image below from Washington Spaces Blog)

It's going to be so much fun & I'd love to see some of you there!!! (It's my first time speaking in public since college so wish me luck!!- eeeeeek! ;) Again, spaces are limited & are booking up quickly, so email Frances at RSVP@ThePearTreeCottage.com to reserve your spot!!

Hope to see you there!!

xoxo,

lauren